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The strong labor market tells us we are late cycle

The strong labor market tells us we are late cycle.png

Downward revision to profit margins is negative for hiring and capex outlook since 1960

Downward revision to profit margins is negative for hiring and capex outlook.png

Guggenheim S&P 500 bull/bear market indicator since 1968

Guggenheim S&P 500 bull bear market indicator since 1968.png

Prepare for a large drawdown in stocks during the next recession

Prepare for a large drawdown in stocks during the next recession.png

China's deleveraging will further pressure the global economy

China's deleveraging will further pressure the global economy.png

Even with the budget deal, fiscal stimulus is set to fade

Even with the budget deal, fiscal stimulus is set to fade.png

Our U.S. recession dashboard points to recession starting by mid-2020

Our U.S. recession dashboard points to recession starting by mid-2020.png

Model based recession probability

Model based recession probability.png

30-year fixed mortgage rate

30-year fixed mortgage rate.png

Average of the four valuation indicators since 1900 (Geometric)

Average of the four valuation indicators since 1900 (Geometric).png

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